Right from the start of the 2012 GOP primaries I had a sense that Paul wasn’t serious about winning the nomination. I mean I’m sure that winning the nomination would be the best outcome in Paul’s eyes, but I believe Paul was more realistic about his prospects in the GOP race. Considering that his domestic and social policies conflict with the kind policies liberals solidly support, and considering his foreign policy scares the hell out of Republicans, I have no doubt he got the message well before he decided to run in this race. Despite this fact, Paul supporters continue to be fanatical in their support for Ron Paul, many still believe he can win the GOP nomination for 2012. Ron Paul still has a chance, but it is highly unlikely that he will gain the nomination, unless he starts winning the vast majority of States from now on, which just ain’t ganna happen.
So what is Paul’s key plan if it is not to win the majority of delegates in the GOP race?
I’ve come up with three scenarios here:
1. To gain enough delegates toward the convention to make some kind of a deal (possibly to gain support for a future presidential run for Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator in either 2016 or 2020).
2. To wreak havoc in the Republican races and eventually the GOP convention before he retires. Considering that Paul supporters feel that their leader has been treated unfairly within the GOP, this may be a preference of theirs. This also goes back to many of the calls from Paul supporters to vote again Romney, to write in Paul’s name come November 4th.
3. To win over enough delegates at a brokered convention to gain the nomination. Rachel Maddow already reported in late February that part of Paul’s campaign plan was to win over State delegates even if it goes against the majority vote in their counties (1).
I would say that ponts 2 and 3 are the least likely scenarios, point 1 seems to be the more plausable scenario for me.
There has been talk about Paul being on the ticket with Romney as well. I don’t see this as something Paul’s campaign is looking at now, rather something that Romney’s campaign is considering down the road. I’ll get more into the possibility of a Romney Paul ticket in a seperate article. what I will say now is that I would definately not rule out the possibility that Paul will be offered the vice presidential position, he is by the least on Romney’s shortlist. His supporters however are not too happy about the prospect and I can understand now. Where Paul will accept such an offer is best left for another article.